How will you know when you're making progress with your writing or self-publishing this year?

I'll know when I'm making progress when work is actually moving instead of circling.  Drafts move forward instead of stalling, projects get finished rather than endlessly revised, and fewer decisions need to be revisited because the next steps are clear.  One very tangible measure is my physical to-do list: pages get fully completed and thrown away because everything on them is done, not carried forward again and again.  If I'm writing more, spending less time untangling avoidable problems, and steadily shrinking that stack of paper, then I know I'm making progress.